The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is closely watching the Arabian Sea as it registers the initial indicators of a potential post-monsoon cyclonic storm named as Tej. In its latest weather update issued on Monday, the IMD reported that a low-pressure area is likely to take shape over the southeastern and east-central Arabian Sea within the next 48 hours.
Should a tropical storm materialize in the Indian seas, it will be named “Tej” in accordance with the naming convention for cyclones in the Indian Ocean region.
According to a statement from an IMD official quoted by PTI, there has been observed a cyclonic circulation over the southeastern Arabian Sea and the neighboring Lakshadweep region. As a result, a low-pressure area is anticipated to develop in the same region.
At this stage, the probability of this weather system intensifying into a cyclonic storm is not notably high. The official explained, “As of now, the probability of this system intensifying into a cyclonic storm is not very high. The models have yet to confirm it. There is no unanimity in the model forecasts so far. We will have to wait for a few more days for a clear picture to emerge.”
Climatologically, the period from October to December is considered conducive for the development of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea due to warmer ocean temperatures.
It’s noteworthy that in 2022, the Arabian Sea did not witness the formation of any tropical storms during the post-monsoon season, whereas the Bay of Bengal experienced the emergence of two tropical storms, named Sitrang and Mandous.
Cyclones in the Arabian Sea are known for their unpredictable tracks and timelines, as highlighted by experts at Skymet Weather. Typically, once these cyclones are positioned over the central parts of the Arabian Sea, their preferred trajectory is directed towards regions such as Somalia, the Gulf of Aden, Yemen, and Oman.
However, on certain occasions, these cyclones deviate from their anticipated paths and head towards the coastlines of Gujarat in India and Pakistan. This behavior demonstrates the unpredictable nature of cyclones in the Arabian Sea and underscores the challenge in precisely determining their movements.
The IMD’s vigilance and monitoring are essential, as the provision of early warnings and timely information can aid coastal regions and authorities in making necessary preparations for potential adverse weather conditions. The uncertainty regarding the potential development of a cyclonic storm highlights the importance of a cautious and proactive approach to safeguard the safety and well-being of communities in the region.
Further updates and clarifications are expected in the coming days as additional data and modeling information become available on the storm Tej. The IMD will continue to closely observe the Arabian Sea to ensure timely responses and interventions, if required, to protect communities and infrastructure from potential cyclonic impacts.
