In a notable upswing in economic activity, the number of e-way bills, electronic permits for the shipment of goods, increased to 95 million in December, up from 87.5 million in November. This surge is attributed to businesses pushing goods into the supply chain in the last month of the third quarter. E-way bills, considered indicators of economic activity, had experienced a dip in November from a historic high of over 100 million in October, which marked a surge in festive demand for goods.
E-way bills play a crucial role in tracking the movement of goods within and across states, providing insights into the vibrancy of the supply chain and overall economic health. The increase in e-way bills in December suggests a positive momentum in trade and commerce as businesses geared up for year-end activities.
According to data released by GSTN, the company that processes Goods and Services Tax (GST) returns, the sales trend in December is expected to be reflected in January’s tax collections. In December, central and state governments collected ₹1.65 trillion in GST revenue, slightly below the monthly average for the fiscal year of ₹1.66 trillion. Despite the marginal dip, GST revenue receipts exhibited a double-digit growth of 10.3% compared to the same period the previous year.
The robust growth in GST revenue indicates that economic transactions and consumption remained strong, contributing to the overall fiscal health. E-way bills and GST collections are closely monitored as key indicators of economic performance, reflecting the movement of goods and the financial transactions associated with them.
S&P Global, in its analysis on January 3, reported that India’s manufacturing output expanded strongly in December despite a loss of growth momentum. The manufacturing purchase managers’ index, a crucial indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector, fell from 56.0 in November to an 18-month low of 54.9 in December. However, a reading above 50 still indicates expansion. S&P Global highlighted that the latest reading was above the long-run series trend, contributing to the lowest quarterly average of 55.5 since the first quarter of FY2023.
The dip in the index is seen as a moderation in the growth rate rather than a contraction, and India’s manufacturing sector continues to exhibit strength. The sector’s resilience is crucial for the overall economic recovery, and despite the slight dip in the index, the health of the manufacturing industry remains robust.
Another high-frequency economic indicator, railway freight data, presented a positive picture in official figures released on January 4. The Railways reported that in December, it achieved originating freight loading of 138.99 million tonnes, a notable increase from 130.66 million tonnes in December 2022, reflecting a 6.37% growth. Freight revenue also showed improvement, reaching ₹15,097.61 crore in December 2023, compared to ₹14,574.25 crore in the same month a year ago, indicating a 3.59% improvement.
The positive growth in railway freight loading and revenue is a significant indicator of increased economic activity in sectors reliant on transportation and logistics. As the backbone of the country’s logistical infrastructure, the railways play a crucial role in facilitating the movement of goods across regions.
The combined data from e-way bills, GST revenue, manufacturing output, and railway freight loading point towards a resilient and growing Indian economy. Despite some fluctuations, the overall trajectory indicates positive momentum in various sectors. The uptick in economic indicators is particularly encouraging as it aligns with broader global economic recovery trends.
As the country navigates the evolving economic landscape, the performance of these key indicators will continue to be closely monitored for insights into the pace and sustainability of India’s economic recovery. The interplay of e-way bills, GST collections, manufacturing output, and railway freight data provides a comprehensive snapshot of the economic dynamics, guiding policymakers and businesses in shaping future strategies.
